Milk price protests: Global economics, local forces and a bicycle chain

Credit where it's due to Farmers For Action for putting milk prices back on the public agenda, not just in our own farming press but the national media too. Of course, this begs the question whether protests are justified and the answer, of course, is 'it depends...'

The critical thing is what protests are hoping to achieve. If, on their own, this is a lasting increase in the milk price paid to farmers, I fear this is not going to come about because there are too many factors in play. But that does NOT mean protests are not justified, but rather that their purpose is (or ought to be) something achievable as a direct outcome. The problem with associating protests directly with milk price is that there is no mechanical linkage...no leverage. Expecting protests alone to have a direct effect on ex-farm milk prices is like pedalling a bicycle with no chain: Lots of effort and noise, but no connection with the wheels.

In contrast, what protests can realistically be expected to achieve, if planned and staged the right way, is the generation of public goodwill towards dairy farmers for their essential role in maintaining a reliable supply of fresh milk. All cyclists know how much easier it is to pedal with the wind than against it. Public goodwill can be a strong breeze at our backs in a team pursuit for better milk prices. But on its own, it isn't going to push us very far forward.

This brings us back to the bike's missing chain and an important difference between global and local economics. Globally, I trust the NFU's analysis that recent reduced demand (from Russia and China in particular) combined with increased supply is responsible for lower prices for long shelf-life dairy commodities. Take a look at grain and you'll see that a similar thing has happened there too.

Now, imagine for a minute that you own a factory that needs skimmed milk powders or indeed grain as raw materials. Of course, these are both high value materials relative to their bulk, so they can be shipped long distances at presumably affordable cost. What you pay for them is linked closely to their global commodity prices. However, if your factory also makes products that need fresh milk, then local factors come into play that are not necessarily linked with the global picture.

Imagine for example that just three of your local suppliers - each with 300 cows - gets out of milk. You need to find new sources for about 20,000 litres a day. Even if these are only 25 miles further away, but already supplying one of your rivals, how can you persuade them to supply your factory?

Or, perhaps all your 100 suppliers - each with 200 cows on average - de-tune their cow rations by just 10 MJ/cow/day because they have lots of forage and want to reduce bought in feed costs. That's likely to result in at least 36,000 litres* a day less coming over your factory weighbridge. And unless you have guaranteed minimum daily deliveries written into their contracts that you're able to enforce, what are you likely to do about it? This, I believe, could be our bicycle chain.

[*2 litres/cow/day x 18,000 cows in milk]

Otherwise, expecting any buyer to pay any more than the bare minimum for milk is like expecting yourself to pay more than the going rate for red diesel...or fertiliser...or dairy chemicals. And when was the last time you did that? Quite.

So: 1) Global economics are highly relevant to having a viable dairy farm business, but 2) they are not the entire story. 3) Protests do have a justified role as long as they are geared to generating public goodwill in support of dairy farmers. 4) Local economics could possibly be our bicycle chain; the thing to remember is supply and demand. If supply goes down and demand remains unchanged, prices can be expected to go up. 5) But this will only happen if milk buyers notice their daily volumes dropping and staying down, putting factory throughputs under pressure. 6) And this will only happen if enough dairy farmers have the bottle and vision (and leadership? NFU and FFA take note) to take action.

Or 7) Just keep shouting 'the sky is falling'*. It's your choice. [*From the children's fairytale, Chicken Licken]

By the way, I write this as a member of Farmers For Action and welcome viewpoints other than my own. In addition to pointing out flaws in my thinking, what I would really hope for are constructive ideas for making things better in lasting way...which I have to say are sadly lacking in recent farming press coverage.